2023 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2023, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

Kent State @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreConfident

Kent State

16.0

Fresno State

38.9

Fresno State win probability: 93%

Margin (Fresno State − Kent State): 22.9 (80% range 3 to 44)

Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Kent State 10 – Fresno State 53 (margin error 20.1, total error 8.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.