2023 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2023, 12:00 AM · Maverik Stadium
James Madison @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLean
James Madison
33.1
Utah State
27.1
Utah State win probability: 36%
Margin (Utah State − James Madison): -6.0 (80% range -28 to 15)
Total: 60.2 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: James Madison 45 – Utah State 38 (margin error 1.0, total error 22.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.