Predicted scoreLikely
Buffalo
23.4
Louisiana
33.0
Louisiana win probability: 72%
Margin (Louisiana − Buffalo): 9.6 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Buffalo 38 – Louisiana 45 (margin error 2.6, total error 26.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.