2024 Postseason · Dec 26, 2024, 7:00 PM · Ford Field (neutral site)

Pittsburgh @ Toledo

Predicted scoreToss-up

Pittsburgh

24.8

Toledo

23.7

Toledo win probability: 47%

Margin (Toledo − Pittsburgh): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Pittsburgh 46 – Toledo 48 (margin error 3.1, total error 45.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.