2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLean

Colorado State

22.7

Middle Tennessee

29.7

Middle Tennessee win probability: 67%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Colorado State): 7.0 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Colorado State 31 – Middle Tennessee 23 (margin error 15.0, total error 1.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.