2023 Week 3 · Sep 17, 2023, 2:30 AM · Mountain America Stadium

Fresno State @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Fresno State

26.4

Arizona State

28.5

Arizona State win probability: 55%

Margin (Arizona State − Fresno State): 2.0 (80% range -18 to 22)

Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Fresno State 29 – Arizona State 0 (margin error 31.0, total error 25.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.