Predicted scoreToss-up
BYU
27.6
Arkansas
30.5
Arkansas win probability: 58%
Margin (Arkansas − BYU): 3.0 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: BYU 38 – Arkansas 31 (margin error 10.0, total error 10.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.