2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 11:00 PM · Boone Pickens Stadium

South Alabama @ Oklahoma State

Predicted scoreLikely

South Alabama

20.0

Oklahoma State

29.7

Oklahoma State win probability: 73%

Margin (Oklahoma State − South Alabama): 9.7 (80% range -10 to 30)

Total: 49.8 (80% range 28 to 73)

Actual: South Alabama 33 – Oklahoma State 7 (margin error 35.7, total error 9.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.