2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 11:00 PM · Joe Aillet Stadium

North Texas @ Louisiana Tech

Predicted scoreToss-up

North Texas

28.3

Louisiana Tech

26.1

Louisiana Tech win probability: 45%

Margin (Louisiana Tech − North Texas): -2.1 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: North Texas 40 – Louisiana Tech 37 (margin error 0.9, total error 22.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.