2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
LSU @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreToss-up
LSU
28.4
Mississippi State
25.6
Mississippi State win probability: 43%
Margin (Mississippi State − LSU): -2.8 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: LSU 41 – Mississippi State 14 (margin error 24.2, total error 1.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.