2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 4:00 PM · Memorial Stadium
Kansas State @ Missouri
Predicted scoreLean
Kansas State
29.7
Missouri
21.8
Missouri win probability: 31%
Margin (Missouri − Kansas State): -7.9 (80% range -28 to 12)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Kansas State 27 – Missouri 30 (margin error 10.9, total error 5.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.