2023 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2023, 11:30 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Navy @ Memphis

Predicted scoreLikely

Navy

18.8

Memphis

30.1

Memphis win probability: 77%

Margin (Memphis − Navy): 11.3 (80% range -8 to 31)

Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Navy 24 – Memphis 28 (margin error 7.3, total error 3.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.