2023 Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023, 11:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Memphis @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreConfident

Memphis

39.9

Arkansas State

20.6

Arkansas State win probability: 13%

Margin (Arkansas State − Memphis): -19.3 (80% range -42 to 3)

Total: 60.5 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Memphis 37 – Arkansas State 3 (margin error 14.7, total error 20.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.