2024 Postseason · Dec 15, 2024, 2:00 AM · Cramton Bowl (neutral site)

South Alabama @ Western Michigan

Predicted scoreLikely

South Alabama

34.2

Western Michigan

18.8

Western Michigan win probability: 17%

Margin (Western Michigan − South Alabama): -15.5 (80% range -36 to 4)

Total: 53.0 (80% range 31 to 77)

Actual: South Alabama 30 – Western Michigan 23 (margin error 8.5, total error 0.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.