Predicted scoreToss-up
Illinois
30.5
Kansas
30.6
Kansas win probability: 50%
Margin (Kansas − Illinois): 0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 61.1 (80% range 36 to 87)
Actual: Illinois 23 – Kansas 34 (margin error 10.8, total error 4.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.