2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 8:00 PM · DATCU Stadium
California @ North Texas
Predicted scoreLean
California
31.4
North Texas
25.0
North Texas win probability: 34%
Margin (North Texas − California): -6.4 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: California 58 – North Texas 21 (margin error 30.6, total error 22.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.