2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 4:00 PM · Ross-Ade Stadium
Fresno State @ Purdue
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
23.6
Purdue
31.0
Purdue win probability: 68%
Margin (Purdue − Fresno State): 7.4 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Fresno State 39 – Purdue 35 (margin error 11.4, total error 19.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.