2024 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024, 8:30 PM · Rose Bowl
Fresno State @ UCLA
Predicted scoreLikely
Fresno State
20.8
UCLA
30.8
UCLA win probability: 74%
Margin (UCLA − Fresno State): 10.0 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Fresno State 13 – UCLA 20 (margin error 3.0, total error 18.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.