Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas
25.3
Missouri
28.3
Missouri win probability: 57%
Margin (Missouri − Arkansas): 3.0 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Arkansas 21 – Missouri 28 (margin error 4.0, total error 4.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.