Predicted scoreToss-up
Illinois
28.2
Rutgers
28.4
Rutgers win probability: 50%
Margin (Rutgers − Illinois): 0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Illinois 38 – Rutgers 31 (margin error 7.2, total error 12.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.