Predicted scoreLean
Texas
30.5
Arkansas
22.7
Arkansas win probability: 31%
Margin (Arkansas − Texas): -7.8 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Texas 20 – Arkansas 10 (margin error 2.2, total error 23.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.