2024 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024, 10:00 PM · Cajun Field
Arkansas State @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreLean
Arkansas State
26.0
Louisiana
33.8
Louisiana win probability: 68%
Margin (Louisiana − Arkansas State): 7.8 (80% range -14 to 29)
Total: 59.8 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Arkansas State 19 – Louisiana 55 (margin error 28.2, total error 14.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.