2024 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024, 6:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Liberty @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLean

Liberty

30.9

Middle Tennessee

25.2

Middle Tennessee win probability: 36%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Liberty): -5.7 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Liberty 37 – Middle Tennessee 17 (margin error 14.3, total error 2.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.