2024 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024, 4:45 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas
28.9
Mississippi State
27.8
Mississippi State win probability: 47%
Margin (Mississippi State − Arkansas): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Arkansas 58 – Mississippi State 25 (margin error 31.9, total error 26.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.