Predicted scoreToss-up
LSU
30.8
Arkansas
27.5
Arkansas win probability: 42%
Margin (Arkansas − LSU): -3.3 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 58.3 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: LSU 34 – Arkansas 10 (margin error 20.7, total error 14.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.