Predicted scoreLean
Toledo
26.5
Buffalo
20.3
Buffalo win probability: 34%
Margin (Buffalo − Toledo): -6.3 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Toledo 15 – Buffalo 30 (margin error 21.3, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.