2024 Week 6 · Oct 6, 2024, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium

Miami @ California

Predicted scoreLean

Miami

32.3

California

26.4

California win probability: 36%

Margin (California − Miami): -5.9 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 58.7 (80% range 34 to 85)

Actual: Miami 39 – California 38 (margin error 4.9, total error 18.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.