2024 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024, 11:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

South Alabama @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

South Alabama

31.7

Arkansas State

29.2

Arkansas State win probability: 44%

Margin (Arkansas State − South Alabama): -2.5 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 60.9 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: South Alabama 16 – Arkansas State 18 (margin error 4.5, total error 26.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.