2024 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024, 9:00 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium

North Texas @ South Alabama

Predicted scoreLikely

North Texas

23.4

South Alabama

33.5

South Alabama win probability: 73%

Margin (South Alabama − North Texas): 10.1 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 56.9 (80% range 33 to 83)

Actual: North Texas 52 – South Alabama 38 (margin error 24.1, total error 33.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.