2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 11:30 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ Memphis

Predicted scoreConfident

Middle Tennessee

22.9

Memphis

42.1

Memphis win probability: 87%

Margin (Memphis − Middle Tennessee): 19.2 (80% range -3 to 42)

Total: 65.0 (80% range 39 to 93)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 7 – Memphis 24 (margin error 2.2, total error 34.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.