2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 8:15 PM · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Mississippi State @ Texas

Predicted scoreConfident

Mississippi State

15.4

Texas

40.7

Texas win probability: 94%

Margin (Texas − Mississippi State): 25.3 (80% range 4 to 46)

Total: 56.1 (80% range 34 to 80)

Actual: Mississippi State 13 – Texas 35 (margin error 3.3, total error 8.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.