2024 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024, 7:30 PM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Miami @ Florida

Predicted scoreLean

Miami

24.7

Florida

31.5

Florida win probability: 66%

Margin (Florida − Miami): 6.8 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Miami 41 – Florida 17 (margin error 30.8, total error 1.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.