Predicted scoreToss-up
Buffalo
23.8
UConn
22.7
UConn win probability: 47%
Margin (UConn − Buffalo): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 46.5 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Buffalo 3 – UConn 47 (margin error 45.1, total error 3.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.