2024 Week 4 · Sep 22, 2024, 2:30 AM · LaVell Edwards Stadium

Kansas State @ BYU

Predicted scoreLikely

Kansas State

30.2

BYU

20.2

BYU win probability: 26%

Margin (BYU − Kansas State): -9.9 (80% range -30 to 10)

Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)

Actual: Kansas State 9 – BYU 38 (margin error 38.9, total error 3.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.