2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 11:00 PM · Raymond James Stadium

Miami @ South Florida

Predicted scoreLikely

Miami

36.7

South Florida

21.0

South Florida win probability: 17%

Margin (South Florida − Miami): -15.7 (80% range -38 to 6)

Total: 57.8 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Miami 50 – South Florida 15 (margin error 19.3, total error 7.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.