2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 7:30 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Memphis @ Navy

Predicted scoreLean

Memphis

29.4

Navy

23.1

Navy win probability: 35%

Margin (Navy − Memphis): -6.3 (80% range -27 to 14)

Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Memphis 44 – Navy 56 (margin error 18.3, total error 47.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.