2024 Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024, 4:00 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
Florida @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLean
Florida
31.3
Mississippi State
24.2
Mississippi State win probability: 33%
Margin (Mississippi State − Florida): -7.1 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Florida 45 – Mississippi State 28 (margin error 9.9, total error 17.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.