2024 Week 4 · Sep 19, 2024, 11:30 PM · Kidd Brewer Stadium

South Alabama @ App State

Predicted scoreToss-up

South Alabama

29.4

App State

29.6

App State win probability: 50%

Margin (App State − South Alabama): 0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 59.0 (80% range 34 to 85)

Actual: South Alabama 48 – App State 14 (margin error 34.2, total error 3.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.