Predicted scoreLean
Indiana
25.4
UCLA
30.3
UCLA win probability: 62%
Margin (UCLA − Indiana): 5.0 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Indiana 42 – UCLA 13 (margin error 34.0, total error 0.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.