2024 Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024, 11:30 PM · Davis Wade Stadium
Toledo @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLikely
Toledo
21.9
Mississippi State
30.4
Mississippi State win probability: 70%
Margin (Mississippi State − Toledo): 8.5 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Toledo 41 – Mississippi State 17 (margin error 32.5, total error 5.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.